Have you often asked yourself how the professional football betting pros find the games to bet on? Most likely, you have. You’ve probably also thought, „Wow, these guys must really study the games and stats“. The fact is, finding the games to bet on often requires not so much skill in actual handicapping, but rather, skill in finding a good price for a good product. Much like shopping for a new car, you can get the same product for less money if you buy it at the right place, and at the right time.

Throughout my 18 years of professional football bets, some of my strongest plays have been based strictly on what professionals like me refer to as „Value“. In these „Value“ situations, I have put my clients onto some of their biggest scores without even handicapping the game. Of course, my team of associates and myself are more than astute in handicapping, but my theory of finding „Value“ will put you onto the Wise-guy side of the play every time. By being on the sharp side of a game, you will undoubtedly win more bets than you will lose, which will naturally make you a winning bettor, and one that your bookmaker will respect.

What I am about to tell you will force your bookmaker to keep a close eye on you, so be conservative when placing your plays. There’s nothing worse than being asked to take your business elsewhere by a trusted sportsbook..

First, there are a couple of facts we will accept as truths. The first is that the opening line, made by the Vegas pro’s is the correct line for the game. Meaning, if Vegas opens the line on the Cowboys game at -6, then that is about as accurate of a number as we are going to find. We are also going to consider the fact that quite often, the opening Vegas line ends up being within 1-3 points of the actual outcome… I mean, how many times have you been biting your nails at the end of the game because the outcome is so close to the pointspread?

Typically, on a given football weekend, there are between 3-6 games where the line moves between 3-5 points from the opening Vegas line (which we assume is most accurate). You will need to find a source of opening lines and the current lines, so you can spot the „Movers“ or „Hot games“. One site that has this feature is donbest.com. Once you find the games with the line moves, you’ll want to do a little research to see if the line has moved due to a big injury or freak incident. If so, discard that game and don’t bet on it. The games where the line has moved without injury or incident, have done so due to the betting public ALL BETTING ON THE SAME TEAM. When a sportsbook receives heavy action on one side of a bet, they will adjust the line to encourage action on the other team. This is when you make your move.

Let’s say that Dallas is playing Washington, and the line is Dallas -5. Throughout the week, the majority of bettors seem to agree that Dallas will cover, so they all bet on Dallas. Of course, the sportsbook wants to encourage bettors to take Washington, so they move the line to Dallas -6. Now let’s say, even though the book has moved the line to 6, everyone is still betting on Dallas. This forces the book to move the line again, this time to -7. The book will continue to do this until people begin to bet on the other team, thus starting to balance the sportsbook’s action. For you, however, the sportsbook has given you 2 extra points of „Value“ if you were to bet on Washington. You see, you should really only be getting 5 points to take Washington, but due to the betting public’s agreement that Dallas will cover, you are NOW getting 7 points. In this case you obviously bet on Washington +7. When there is a line move, you always bet on the team that the move has made it easier for them to cover.

When placing MY bets for the week with this theory, I only take underdogs who had a line move in their favor. I will ignore the favorites with the line move. For example:

Dallas -6 vs. Washington moves to Dallas -4 vs. Washington, I won’t bet Dallas because the move made it easier for the favorite to win, NOT the dog.

Dallas -6 vs. Washington moves to Dallas -8 vs, Washington, I will bet Wash., because I can take the dog.

For my money, I only take the underdogs in this situation. Usually, you’ll find one game per week which applies to the theory. If you take your time and only bet the games which fit this „Value“ situation, you will absolutely win more games than you lose throughout the season. Furthermore, if you follow my lead, and only take underdogs in this situation, You’ll find yourself on quite a few underdogs who win outright!

Another important factor to consider is that not all sportsbooks will have the same line. For example, Betonsports.com might have Washington +8, while another sportsbook like Jagbet.com might have Washington +8.5. Naturally, you’ll want to have an account at more than one sportsbook to ensure getting that extra half point in your favor. (We all know that sometimes that half point makes the difference ). As far as which sportsbooks to use, I only recommend using the Giants of the industry like Betonsports.com or Jagbet.com to name a couple. You can see their ads in this magazine for more details.